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Herediano vs Marathon

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica, San José
Fri, Jul 31, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent numbers: Herediano at 0.88 goals for, 0.25 against; Marathon at 0.63 for, 1 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 0.44) point toward Herediano. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Herediano
11%
Draws
9%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Herediano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Herediano lately — more wins on the board than Marathon.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Herediano taking it.
  • Herediano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Herediano Clean Sheet 20%
Marathon Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herediano Marathon
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 10
Draws 4 9
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herediano 76 / 100
Marathon 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herediano Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Herediano scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Marathon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Herediano stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Marathon lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Herediano VS Marathon
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Herediano

(Home)
24 Jul
Herediano
1 : 1
Puntarenas FC
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
24 May
Motagua
1 : 0
Marathon
22 May
Marathon
1 : 1
Motagua
19 May
Real Espana
1 : 1
Marathon
16 May
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
07 May
Olimpia
2 : 0
Marathon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Xelaju00000:00
2Alajuelense00000:00
3Luis Angel Firpo00000:00
4Diriangen00000:00
5Plaza Amador00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano00000:00
2Marathon00000:00
3Alianza FC00000:00
4Esteli00000:00
5Antigua00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Saprissa00000:00
2Olimpia00000:00
3Alianza00000:00
4Deportivo Mixco00000:00
5UMECIT00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Municipal00000:00
2Cartagines00000:00
3Motagua00000:00
4FAS00000:00
5Verdes00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)