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Herediano vs Puntarenas FC

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Eladio Rosabal Cordero
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AI Match Summary

Herediano play Puntarenas FC in the Primera Division 2025/2026. Herediano are favorites here. Recently, Herediano averaged 1.41 goals scored and 0.66 conceded. Puntarenas FC averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Herediano won 3, Puntarenas FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 5, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Herediano and 0.81 for Puntarenas FC. This points to a Herediano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Herediano
17%
Draws
24%
Puntarenas FC
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Herediano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence
  • Herediano picked up more points recently compared to Puntarenas FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Herediano Clean Sheet 26%
Puntarenas FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herediano Puntarenas FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 19 6
Draws 4 10
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.41 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Primera Division
Puntarenas FC vs Herediano
0:1
Feb 11, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Puntarenas FC vs Herediano
3:0
Feb 3, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Herediano vs Puntarenas FC
1:0
Jan 29, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Puntarenas FC
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Primera Division
Puntarenas FC vs Herediano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Leal R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Puntarenas FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Carballo R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herediano 58 / 100
Puntarenas FC 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herediano Puntarenas FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Herediano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Herediano & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.6%
1.96
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Herediano attacking → ← attacking Puntarenas FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Herediano scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Puntarenas FC let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Herediano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Puntarenas FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 28
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714