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Hibiscus Coast vs Napier City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup
Hibiscus Coast Logo

Hibiscus Coast

2 - 5
FT
Napier City Logo

Napier City

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hackenberg E.
6' Event
Makowem D.
12' Event
Fenton J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-5. The second leg ended 2-5.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Hibiscus Coast
15%
Draws
41%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hibiscus Coast

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Napier City come out ahead of Hibiscus Coast on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Napier City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Napier City, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Hibiscus Coast Clean Sheet 10%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hibiscus Coast Napier City
Matches Played 4 32
Wins 2 13
Draws 0 4
Losses 2 15
Goals Scored 1.75 2.06
Goals Conceded 2.25 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Chatham Cup
Hibiscus Coast vs Napier City
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hibiscus Coast Compare

Top Goalscorer Hackenberg E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kerr C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Napier City Compare

Top Goalscorer Makowem D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fenton J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hibiscus Coast 30 / 100
Napier City 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hibiscus Coast Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hibiscus Coast scored in 100% of their last 4 games.

Napier City has conceded goals in 88% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 7.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Hibiscus Coast stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hibiscus Coast VS Napier City
2 Goals Scored 2.25
3 Goals Conceded 1.63
67% Over 1.5 100%
67% Over 2.5 88%
67% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Hibiscus Coast

(Home)
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
27 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
3 : 4
Coastal Spirit
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast

Napier City

(Away)
04 Oct
Auckland United
7 : 1
Napier City
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
South Auckland Rangers 0
Auckland City 3
Takapuna Afc 0
Nelson Suburbs FC 5
Northern AFC 0
Auckland United 3
Cambridge 1
Dunedin City Royals 0
Cashmere Technical 9
Island Bay 1
Miramar 3
Melville 0
Hibiscus Coast 1
Petone 0
Napier City 4
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Auckland City 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 2
Auckland United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Miramar 1
Hibiscus Coast 2
Napier City 5
Semi-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Cashmere Technical 2
Napier City 1
Final
Fencibles United AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 1