Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hoffenheim vs Lyon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Europa League SNP Arena, Sinsheim
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hoffenheim host Lyon in the Europa League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Lyon have shipped 1.43 goals a game lately, while Hoffenheim have conceded 2.04 and scored 1.81. Head-to-head, Hoffenheim have won 0 to Lyon's 0, with 3 draws. They last met on Nov 7, 2024, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.81) point toward Lyon. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Hoffenheim
15%
Draws
65%
Lyon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lyon come out ahead of Hoffenheim on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Lyon's way, sitting at 80%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Europa League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Hoffenheim Clean Sheet 11%
Lyon Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hoffenheim Lyon
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.81 1.75
Goals Conceded 2.04 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 7, 2024 Europa League
Hoffenheim vs Lyon
2:2
Nov 7, 2018 Champions League
Lyon vs Hoffenheim
2:2
Oct 23, 2018 Champions League
Hoffenheim vs Lyon
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hoffenheim 10 / 100
Lyon 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hoffenheim Lyon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lyon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hoffenheim's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.67 goals per match.

Lyon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Hoffenheim has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hoffenheim VS Lyon
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hoffenheim

(Home)
10 Oct
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Hamburger
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
17 Sept
OFI Crete
2 : 0
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
05 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Dortmund
Page 1 of 6

Lyon

(Away)
09 Oct
Lens
2 : 1
Lyon
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
3 Sparta Prague 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
4 Besiktas 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
5 Royale Union SG 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
6 Ferencvaros 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Benfica 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 OFI Crete 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
11 Lyon 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
12 Torreense 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
13 Olympiacos Piraeus 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Salzburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 Omonia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
18 Rennes 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
19 Din. Zagreb 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
20 H. Beer Sheva 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
21 Jagiellonia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
22 Real Sociedad 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
23 Anderlecht 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
24 Lillestrom 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
25 Celta Vigo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
27 Levski Sofia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 Celtic 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
29 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
30 AC Milan 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
31 Celje 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 Marseille 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Ararat-Armenia 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
34 Plzen 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
36 Nijmegen 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)