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Holstein Kiel vs Aarhus

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Kahl E.
84' Event
Jorgensen S.

AI Match Summary

Aarhus in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarhus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Holstein Kiel
30%
Draws
31%
Aarhus
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Holstein Kiel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Holstein Kiel haven't matched Aarhus's recent run of results.
  • Holstein Kiel are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aarhus here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 19%
Aarhus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holstein Kiel Aarhus
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.36 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.76 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Holstein Kiel vs Aarhus
0:2
Oct 12, 2023 Club Friendly
Holstein Kiel vs Aarhus
0:1
Mar 23, 2023 Club Friendly
Holstein Kiel vs Aarhus
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Holstein Kiel Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Aarhus Compare

Top Goalscorer Kahl E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jorgensen S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holstein Kiel 36 / 100
Aarhus 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holstein Kiel Aarhus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarhus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Holstein Kiel scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Holstein Kiel stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Holstein Kiel VS Aarhus
1.14 Goals Scored 1.25
1.29 Goals Conceded 2.38
71% Over 1.5 100%
43% Over 2.5 100%
43% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Holstein Kiel

(Home)
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0
Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2
Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0
Holstein Kiel
22 Aug
Munich 1860
0 : 2
Holstein Kiel
14 Aug
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2
St. Pauli
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Aarhus

(Away)
16 Sept
Skjold
1 : 6
Aarhus
13 Sept
Nordsjaelland
2 : 0
Aarhus
05 Sept
Aarhus
2 : 2
Silkeborg
02 Sept
Aarhus
0 : 2
Midtjylland
30 Aug
Randers FC
2 : 1
Aarhus
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