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Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Afolayan O.
46'
Sub
Johansson C. In: Komenda M.
Out: Johansson C.
46'
Sub
Wagner R. In: Knudsen M.
Out: Wagner R.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Holstein Kiel
35%
Draws
35%
St. Pauli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Holstein Kiel come out ahead of St. Pauli on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Holstein Kiel taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 17%
St. Pauli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holstein Kiel St. Pauli
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.46 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
2:2
Sep 3, 2025 Club Friendly
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
1:2
Nov 29, 2024 Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel
3:1
Feb 23, 2024 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Holstein Kiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Muller M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

St. Pauli Compare

Top Goalscorer Afolayan O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holstein Kiel 36 / 100
St. Pauli 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holstein Kiel St. Pauli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Holstein Kiel scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

St. Pauli let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Holstein Kiel stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Holstein Kiel VS St. Pauli
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Holstein Kiel

(Home)
03 Oct
Holstein Kiel
3 : 1
Viborg
19 Sept
Holstein Kiel
1 : 1
VfL Osnabruck
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0
Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2
Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0
Holstein Kiel
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St. Pauli

(Away)
03 Oct
St. Pauli
1 : 1
B. Monchengladbach
20 Sept
Energie Cottbus
1 : 1
St. Pauli
12 Sept
St. Pauli
1 : 0
Wolfsburg
04 Sept
Arminia Bielefeld
2 : 2
St. Pauli
30 Aug
St. Pauli
1 : 2
Kaiserslautern
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