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Hong Kong vs Guangdong XI - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup Hong Kong Stadium, Hongkong
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Sun Ming-Him
54' Event
Chen Hao-Wei
61' Event
Jiang Zhipeng

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Hong Kong
20%
Draws
38%
Guangdong XI
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hong Kong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Hong Kong have won more games recently than Guangdong XI.
  • Model gives Hong Kong a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Hong Kong have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Guangdong XI, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 10%
Guangdong XI Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hong Kong Guangdong XI
Matches Played 35 8
Wins 16 4
Draws 7 2
Losses 12 2
Goals Scored 1.83 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 3, 2026 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong
3:2
Dec 28, 2025 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Hong Kong vs Guangdong XI
2:2
Jan 22, 2025 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Hong Kong vs Guangdong XI
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong
1:1
Feb 7, 2024 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hong Kong Compare

Top Goalscorer Sun Ming-Him
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Guangdong XI Compare

Top Goalscorer Chen Hao-Wei
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jiang Zhipeng
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hong Kong 56 / 100
Guangdong XI 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hong Kong Guangdong XI

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hong Kong Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hong Kong scored in 86% of their last 35 games.

Defensive concern: Guangdong XI conceded in 100% of 8 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Hong Kong stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hong Kong VS Guangdong XI
1.88 Goals Scored 2.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Hong Kong

(Home)
03 Oct
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Cambodia
30 Sept
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Brunei
27 Sept
Hong Kong
4 : 0
Laos
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
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Guangdong XI

(Away)
03 Jan
Guangdong XI
3 : 2
Hong Kong
28 Dec
Hong Kong
2 : 2
Guangdong XI
22 Jan
Hong Kong
1 : 2
Guangdong XI
15 Jan
Guangdong XI
1 : 1
Hong Kong
07 Feb
Guangdong XI
4 : 1
Hong Kong
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Hong Kong 4
Guangdong XI 5