Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Horriya vs Damascus Al-Ahli

Syria Syria

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Damascus Al-Ahli is highly favored to claim all three points on their visit to Horriya, backed by a win probability of 60%. Horriya averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. Damascus Al-Ahli shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Horriya, 2 wins for Damascus Al-Ahli, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 19.06.26 ended in a 2:3 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.20 for Horriya and 1.00 for Damascus Al-Ahli, suggesting the primary value lies in the Damascus Al-Ahli double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Horriya
25%
Draws
60%
Damascus Al-Ahli
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Damascus Al-Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Horriya picked up more points recently compared to Damascus Al-Ahli.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Horriya Clean Sheet 23%
Damascus Al-Ahli Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Horriya Damascus Al-Ahli
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

19.06.26 Premier League
Horriya vs Damascus Al-Ahli
2:3
05.03.26 Premier League
Damascus Al-Ahli vs Horriya
2:1
08.12.17 Premier League
Horriya vs Damascus Al-Ahli
0:0
05.07.17 Premier League
Damascus Al-Ahli vs Horriya
0:2
11.02.17 Premier League
Horriya vs Damascus Al-Ahli
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Horriya

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Damascus Al-Ahli

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Horriya Compare

Top Goalscorer Mensah G. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Damascus Al-Ahli Compare

Top Goalscorer Al-Hariri B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Antwi R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Horriya 18 / 100
Damascus Al-Ahli 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Horriya Damascus Al-Ahli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Damascus Al-Ahli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Damascus Al-Ahli & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Damascus Al-Ahli will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Horriya 17%
Damascus Al-Ahli 48%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Horriya will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Damascus Al-Ahli's early runs.

Horriya 14%
Damascus Al-Ahli 63%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Damascus Al-Ahli to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Horriya tries to push forward.

Horriya 15%
Damascus Al-Ahli 60%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Damascus Al-Ahli increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Horriya 16%
Damascus Al-Ahli 57%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Horriya's defense, opening up opportunities for Damascus Al-Ahli's forward line.

Horriya 14%
Damascus Al-Ahli 66%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Damascus Al-Ahli to manage the closing stages, while Horriya searches for late drama.

Horriya 17%
Damascus Al-Ahli 69%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Horriya attacking → ← attacking Damascus Al-Ahli

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Horriya have found the net in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Damascus Al-Ahli have conceded at least one goal in 79% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.20 goals per match.

Horriya remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Damascus Al-Ahli suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 36
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Ittihad Aleppo29217181:2570
2Homs Al Fidaa29216254:1269
3Al Wahda29185651:2459
4Al Karamah29167653:2955
5Hottin291361033:3645
6Al Taliya291111731:2444
7Tishreen291011838:3241
8Al Jaish291011823:2841
9Damascus Al-Ahli291061334:4236
10Al Shorta29891229:4633
11Horriya29951529:3432
12Foutoua29931734:5030
13Umayya29591526:4224
14Khan Shaykhun29651826:5223
15Jableh29641925:5622
16Al-Shouleh29452014:4917