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Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Houston Dynamo and Louisville City finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Houston Dynamo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Houston Dynamo
40%
Draws
29%
Louisville City
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Houston Dynamo and Louisville City have been evenly matched lately, statistically speaking.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Houston Dynamo here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Houston Dynamo Clean Sheet 16%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Houston Dynamo Louisville City
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 17
Draws 3 4
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.75 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 US Open Cup
Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City
2:1
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City
4:2
Mar 28, 2021 Club Friendly
Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Houston Dynamo 31 / 100
Louisville City 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Houston Dynamo Louisville City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Houston Dynamo scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Louisville City has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Houston Dynamo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Houston Dynamo VS Louisville City
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%