Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Houston FC vs Houston Sur

USA USA

USL League Two
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Houston FC play Houston Sur in the USL League Two. Houston FC are favorites here. Recently, Houston FC averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Houston Sur averaged 0.61 goals scored and 2.93 conceded. In past meetings, Houston FC won 4, Houston Sur won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 9, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.81 for Houston FC and 1.75 for Houston Sur. This points to a Houston FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Houston FC
16%
Draws
16%
Houston Sur
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Houston FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence
  • Houston FC picked up more points recently compared to Houston Sur.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.81 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Houston FC Clean Sheet 12%
Houston Sur Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Houston FC Houston Sur
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 9 1
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 22
Goals Scored 1.63 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 3.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2026 USL League Two
Houston FC vs Houston Sur
3:0
Jun 20, 2026 USL League Two
Houston Sur vs Houston FC
0:3
Jul 10, 2025 USL League Two
Houston FC vs Houston Sur
4:0
May 18, 2025 USL League Two
Houston Sur vs Houston FC
0:1
Jul 15, 2024 USL League Two
Houston Sur vs Houston FC
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Houston FC 64 / 100
Houston Sur 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Houston FC Houston Sur

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Houston FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Houston FC & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.6%
1.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Houston FC attacking → ← attacking Houston Sur

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Houston FC scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Houston Sur let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Houston FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Houston Sur lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 8
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.50