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Hubei Istar vs Dandong Tengyue

China China

FA Cup 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hubei Istar play Dandong Tengyue in the FA Cup 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Hubei Istar averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Dandong Tengyue averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Hubei Istar won 1, Dandong Tengyue won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 31, 2023 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Hubei Istar and 0.94 for Dandong Tengyue. This points to a Hubei Istar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Hubei Istar
27%
Draws
32%
Dandong Tengyue
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Hubei Istar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Hubei Istar picked up more points recently compared to Dandong Tengyue.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Hubei Istar Clean Sheet 24%
Dandong Tengyue Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hubei Istar Dandong Tengyue
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.3

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2023 FA Cup
Hubei Istar vs Dandong Tengyue
1:4
Nov 14, 2021 League Two
Hubei Istar vs Dandong Tengyue
1:0
Aug 1, 2021 FA Cup
Hubei Istar vs Dandong Tengyue
2:4
Jun 28, 2021 League Two
Hubei Istar vs Dandong Tengyue
0:2
May 15, 2021 League Two
Dandong Tengyue vs Hubei Istar
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hubei Istar Compare

Top Goalscorer Yan X.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Dandong Tengyue Compare

Top Goalscorer Yao Diran
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lu Yuefeng
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hubei Istar 42 / 100
Dandong Tengyue 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hubei Istar Dandong Tengyue

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Hubei Istar or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hubei Istar attacking → ← attacking Dandong Tengyue

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hubei Istar scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Dandong Tengyue let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Hubei Istar went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dandong Tengyue lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 31
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00