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Hume City vs Green Gully

Australia Australia

NPL Victoria John Ilhan Memorial Reserve (Nasiol)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hume City play Green Gully in the NPL Victoria. It looks like a close match. Recently, Hume City averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Green Gully averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Hume City won 3, Green Gully won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 20, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Hume City and 1.06 for Green Gully. This points to a Hume City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Hume City
27%
Draws
18%
Green Gully
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Hume City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Hume City picked up more points recently compared to Green Gully.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Hume City Clean Sheet 22%
Green Gully Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hume City Green Gully
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 4
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1.77 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 NPL Victoria
Hume City vs Green Gully
3:2
Mar 6, 2026 NPL Victoria
Green Gully vs Hume City
1:1
May 30, 2025 NPL Victoria
Hume City vs Green Gully
3:2
Feb 21, 2025 NPL Victoria
Green Gully vs Hume City
1:1
May 25, 2024 NPL Victoria
Green Gully vs Hume City
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hume City Compare

Top Goalscorer Schrijvers T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Engelhart Mora C. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Green Gully Compare

Top Goalscorer Khamis A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hope J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hume City 54 / 100
Green Gully 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hume City Green Gully

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hume City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Hume City & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hume City attacking → ← attacking Green Gully

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hume City scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Green Gully let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Hume City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Green Gully lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 19
3.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Oakleigh Cannons20135243:1844
2Hume City20124440:2440
3Avondale FC20111853:2734
4Preston Lions19122530:1632
5Heidelberg Utd2095633:2632
6South Melbourne20101931:3231
7Melbourne City U211986537:2230
8George Cross1968525:2626
9Dandenong City SC2075826:2722
10Altona Magic20641024:3622
11St Albans1964921:3422
12Bentleigh Greens20441218:4416
13Dandenong Thunder20431322:4315
14Green Gully20241414:4210