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Ibarra vs Estrella

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Marrero M.
32' Event
Marrero M.
(Penalty)
80'
Marrero M.

AI Match Summary

Ibarra in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ibarra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Ibarra
30%
Draws
28%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ibarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ibarra lately — more wins on the board than Estrella.
  • 28% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ibarra have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Ibarra Clean Sheet 20%
Estrella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ibarra Estrella
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 18 7
Draws 4 9
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.44 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Estrella
2:0
Oct 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs Ibarra
1:2
Feb 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs Ibarra
0:5
Oct 15, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Estrella
4:3
May 13, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs Ibarra
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ibarra Compare

Top Goalscorer Marrero M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Estrella Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ibarra 36 / 100
Estrella 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ibarra Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrella Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Ibarra's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Estrella's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Ibarra went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ibarra VS Estrella
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ibarra

(Home)
24 May
Tamaraceite
3 : 0
Ibarra
17 May
Ibarra
1 : 0
Tamaraceite
11 May
Ibarra
3 : 1
Tamaraceite
04 May
Las Palmas B
2 : 0
Ibarra
26 Apr
Ibarra
1 : 0
Herbania
Page 1 of 7

Estrella

(Away)
11 May
Estrella
2 : 1
Herbania
04 May
San Bartolome
1 : 0
Estrella
26 Apr
Estrella
1 : 1
CD Santa Ursula
17 Apr
CD Buzanada
1 : 1
Estrella
12 Apr
Estrella
2 : 2
CD Marino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Las Palmas B 34 22 10 2 66:17 76
2 UD San Fernando 34 21 10 3 58:20 73
3 Tamaraceite 34 18 9 7 48:29 63
4 Ibarra 34 18 5 11 49:40 59
5 Mensajero 34 16 8 10 50:37 56
6 Lanzarote 34 16 7 11 56:33 55
7 Panaderia 34 13 11 10 45:39 50
8 CD Marino 34 12 11 11 43:45 47
9 Arucas 34 12 9 13 38:36 45
10 San Bartolome 34 10 15 9 43:35 45
11 Villa Santa Brigida 34 10 11 13 34:42 41
12 Herbania 34 10 10 14 33:41 40
13 CD Santa Ursula 34 10 10 14 29:42 40
14 San Miguel 34 10 7 17 36:54 37
15 CD Buzanada 34 9 5 20 27:54 32
16 Estrella 34 7 9 18 30:57 30
17 Los Llanos 34 7 7 20 25:52 28
18 Union Viera 34 3 10 21 28:65 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)