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Ibarra vs Lanzarote

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Marrero M.
78' Event
Marrero M.

AI Match Summary

Ibarra in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ibarra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Ibarra
35%
Draws
20%
Lanzarote
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ibarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Ibarra have won more games recently than Lanzarote.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Ibarra Clean Sheet 27%
Lanzarote Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ibarra Lanzarote
Matches Played 32 40
Wins 18 15
Draws 4 13
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.44 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.95
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Lanzarote
2:0
Nov 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Ibarra
2:0
Feb 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Lanzarote
1:1
Oct 8, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Ibarra
3:0
Apr 2, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Ibarra
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ibarra Compare

Top Goalscorer Marrero M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Lanzarote Compare

Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ibarra 38 / 100
Lanzarote 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ibarra Lanzarote

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lanzarote Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ibarra scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Lanzarote let in goals in 60% of their last 40 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Ibarra remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lanzarote
0 Goals Scored 0.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ibarra

(Home)
24 May
Tamaraceite
3 : 0
Ibarra
17 May
Ibarra
1 : 0
Tamaraceite
11 May
Ibarra
3 : 1
Tamaraceite
04 May
Las Palmas B
2 : 0
Ibarra
26 Apr
Ibarra
1 : 0
Herbania
Page 1 of 7

Lanzarote

(Away)
06 Aug
Lanzarote
1 : 2
Arenas Getxo
10 May
Lanzarote
0 : 0
Real Union Tenerife
03 May
San Bartolome
1 : 1
Lanzarote
25 Apr
Tamaraceite
1 : 1
Lanzarote
19 Apr
Lanzarote
1 : 1
UD San Fernando
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Las Palmas B 34 22 10 2 66:17 76
2 UD San Fernando 34 21 10 3 58:20 73
3 Tamaraceite 34 18 9 7 48:29 63
4 Ibarra 34 18 5 11 49:40 59
5 Mensajero 34 16 8 10 50:37 56
6 Lanzarote 34 16 7 11 56:33 55
7 Panaderia 34 13 11 10 45:39 50
8 CD Marino 34 12 11 11 43:45 47
9 Arucas 34 12 9 13 38:36 45
10 San Bartolome 34 10 15 9 43:35 45
11 Villa Santa Brigida 34 10 11 13 34:42 41
12 Herbania 34 10 10 14 33:41 40
13 CD Santa Ursula 34 10 10 14 29:42 40
14 San Miguel 34 10 7 17 36:54 37
15 CD Buzanada 34 9 5 20 27:54 32
16 Estrella 34 7 9 18 30:57 30
17 Los Llanos 34 7 7 20 25:52 28
18 Union Viera 34 3 10 21 28:65 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)