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World Championship 2026 Laugardalsvöllur

Ukraine

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Iceland play Ukraine in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iceland averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Ukraine averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Iceland won 1, Ukraine won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 16, 2025 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Iceland and 1.88 for Ukraine. This points to a Ukraine double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Iceland

18%

Draws

49%

Ukraine

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Ukraine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Iceland picked up more points recently compared to Ukraine.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 86%

Over 2.5 Goals 60%

Over 3.5 Goals 36%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Iceland Clean Sheet 10%

Ukraine Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Iceland	Ukraine
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	14
Draws	4	6
Losses	16	10
Goals Scored	1.53	1.43
Goals Conceded	1.83	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.13	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2025 World Championship

Ukraine vs Iceland

Possession: 49% - 43% Cards: 3 - 4

2:0

Oct 10, 2025 World Championship

Iceland vs Ukraine

Possession: 48% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

3:5

Mar 26, 2024 Euro

Ukraine vs Iceland

Possession: 55% - 45% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Sep 5, 2017 World Championship

Iceland vs Ukraine

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

2:0

Sep 5, 2016 World Championship

Ukraine vs Iceland

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iceland Compare

Top Goalscorer Gudmundsson A.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Ellertsson M. E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Ukraine Compare

Top Goalscorer Malinovskyi R.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Gutsulyak O.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iceland 32 / 100

Ukraine 46 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Iceland Ukraine

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ukraine or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iceland attacking → ← attacking Ukraine

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iceland scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Ukraine let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Iceland went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ukraine lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 48

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0