Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Igea Virtus vs Castrumfavara

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Varela I.
44' Event
Lanza M.
47' Event
Vacca R.

AI Match Summary

Igea Virtus in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Igea Virtus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Igea Virtus
30%
Draws
39%
Castrumfavara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castrumfavara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Igea Virtus lately — more wins on the board than Castrumfavara.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Castrumfavara taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Igea Virtus Clean Sheet 10%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Igea Virtus Castrumfavara
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 1.38 1.23
Goals Conceded 1 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs Castrumfavara
3:2
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Igea Virtus
0:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Castrumfavara vs Igea Virtus
3:1
Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Igea Virtus
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs Castrumfavara
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Igea Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Cicirello G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vacca R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Castrumfavara Compare

Top Goalscorer Varela I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lanza M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Igea Virtus 26 / 100
Castrumfavara 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Igea Virtus Castrumfavara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrumfavara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Castrumfavara conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Igea Virtus scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Igea Virtus stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Igea Virtus VS Castrumfavara
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Igea Virtus

(Home)
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 2
Calcio Avola
03 May
Lamezia
4 : 1
Igea Virtus
26 Apr
Igea Virtus
1 : 1
ACR Messina
22 Apr
Igea Virtus
2 : 1
Vibonese
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Castrumfavara

(Away)
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
03 May
Castrumfavara
2 : 2
Enna
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Castrumfavara
3 : 1
Gela
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)