Sport Picks
Illescas vs Marchamalo Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 
Match Events
37'
37'
Chaves A.
51'
51'
Rubio A.
79'
79'
Garcia H.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 game between Illescas and Marchamalo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Illescas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marchamalo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Marchamalo carry the better recent record into this one.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Illescas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Illescas Clean Sheet 20%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Illescas | Marchamalo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 31 |
| Wins | 6 | 15 |
| Draws | 13 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.91 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.56 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Illescas vs Marchamalo
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Illescas
0:1
Jan 15, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Illescas vs Marchamalo
5:1
Sep 11, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Illescas
2:3
Jan 24, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Illescas
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Illescas Compare
Top Goalscorer Chaves A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Garcia H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28
Marchamalo Compare
Top Goalscorer Rubio A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Illescas 36 / 100
Marchamalo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Illescas Marchamalo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marchamalo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Marchamalo has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.
Illescas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Illescas found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (32 games).
Scoring Trends
Illescas VS Marchamalo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Illescas
(Home) 27 Sept
Illescas
2 : 0 Villarrubia
20 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 2 Illescas
13 Sept
Illescas
0 : 0 Socuellamos
05 Sept
CD Tarancon
0 : 1 Illescas
29 Aug
Illescas
0 : 1 Pozuelo de Alarcon
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Illescas
2 : 0 Villarrubia
13 Sept
Illescas
0 : 0 Socuellamos
29 Aug
Illescas
0 : 1 Pozuelo de Alarcon
18 Aug
Illescas
1 : 1 San Sebastian Reyes B
14 Aug
Illescas
1 : 1 CF Talavera
Page 1 of 4
Marchamalo
(Away) 27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2 Marchamalo
20 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 2 CD Guadalajara B
13 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 2 Marchamalo
05 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 0 CD Villa
30 Aug
Marchamalo
2 : 0 Union Adarve
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2 Marchamalo
13 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 2 Marchamalo
15 Aug
Pozuelo de Alarcon
0 : 1 Marchamalo
12 Aug
CD Daganzo
0 : 2 Marchamalo
10 May
Sonseca
1 : 0 Marchamalo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puertollano C.F. | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 54:21 | 74 |
| 2 | CD Tarancon | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 62:25 | 73 |
| 3 | Toledo | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 55:17 | 68 |
| 4 | Albacete B | 34 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 49:17 | 64 |
| 5 | Manchego Ciudad Real | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:29 | 61 |
| 6 | Villarrubia | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42:35 | 53 |
| 7 | Villacanas | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 29:26 | 48 |
| 8 | San Clemente | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 36:44 | 47 |
| 9 | CD Guadalajara B | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 30:37 | 43 |
| 10 | Villarrobledo | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 30:36 | 43 |
| 11 | Huracan de Balazote | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 33:45 | 41 |
| 12 | Illescas | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 21:32 | 37 |
| 13 | Marchamalo | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 14 | La Solana | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 26:38 | 35 |
| 15 | Azuqueca | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 34:39 | 34 |
| 16 | CD Pedroneras | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 28:43 | 33 |
| 17 | Sonseca | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 28:69 | 22 |
| 18 | Cazalegas | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 17:64 | 18 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
