Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ilves vs TPS

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
1 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Ivanovic L.
21'
Sub
Konkkola M. In: Anini S.
Out: Konkkola M.
54'
Raap Y.

AI Match Summary

The Veikkausliiga game between Ilves and TPS finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ilves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ilves
15%
Draws
42%
TPS
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ilves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Ilves's 1.66 goals per match outpaces what TPS have produced (1.17).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ilves have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Ilves Clean Sheet 19%
TPS Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilves TPS
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.66 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Veikkausliiga
TPS vs Ilves
1:3
Jun 13, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs TPS
1:0
May 27, 2026 Suomen Cup
Ilves vs TPS
1:0
Apr 26, 2023 Suomen Cup
TPS vs Ilves
0:2
Mar 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Ilves vs TPS
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilves Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanga J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

TPS Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilves 32 / 100
TPS 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilves TPS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilves found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

TPS let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

TPS's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ilves VS TPS
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilves

(Home)
06 Aug
Rijeka
1 : 0
Ilves
02 Aug
AC Oulu
1 : 0
Ilves
30 Jul
Ilves
3 : 1
Stjarnan
26 Jul
Ilves
1 : 0
Lahti
23 Jul
Stjarnan
1 : 0
Ilves
Page 1 of 6

TPS

(Away)
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
26 Jul
HJK
1 : 0
TPS
20 Jul
TPS
1 : 3
Ilves
11 Jul
TPS
3 : 0
AC Oulu
04 Jul
SJK
3 : 1
TPS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 18 11 6 1 33:16 39
2 Inter Turku 18 9 7 2 25:14 34
3 VPS 19 8 6 5 27:18 30
4 AC Oulu 18 9 3 6 22:21 30
5 Gnistan 19 8 5 6 29:24 29
6 HJK 18 8 4 6 28:23 28
7 Lahti 18 7 4 7 22:16 25
8 TPS 18 7 4 7 23:20 25
9 Ilves 18 6 4 8 29:31 22
10 SJK 19 4 6 9 24:29 18
11 Jaro 19 3 6 10 18:38 15
12 Mariehamn 18 0 5 13 9:39 5
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)