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Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Aparicio R.
47' Event
Urrutia J.
68'
Santana V.

AI Match Summary

Inca Aruba in this Primera Division matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Inca Aruba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Inca Aruba
35%
Draws
28%
Fuerte San Francisco
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Inca Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Inca Aruba average 0.87 goals a game right now, well clear of Fuerte San Francisco's 0.7.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Primera Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Inca Aruba Clean Sheet 68%
Fuerte San Francisco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Inca Aruba Fuerte San Francisco
Matches Played 15 27
Wins 4 4
Draws 4 10
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 0.87 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Primera Division
Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Inca Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Urrutia J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancia I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Fuerte San Francisco Compare

Top Goalscorer Aparicio R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Inca Aruba 41 / 100
Fuerte San Francisco 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Inca Aruba Fuerte San Francisco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Inca Aruba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fuerte San Francisco has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Attacking prowess: Inca Aruba scored in 73% of their last 15 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Inca Aruba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Inca Aruba VS Fuerte San Francisco
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Inca Aruba

(Home)
10 Oct
Inca Aruba
1 : 4
Platense Municipal
05 Oct
FAS
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
02 Oct
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Municipal Limeno
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
19 Sept
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
Page 1 of 3

Fuerte San Francisco

(Away)
10 Oct
Fuerte San Francisco
2 : 1
Cacahuatique
04 Oct
Inter Santa Tecla
1 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
01 Oct
Fuerte San Francisco
0 : 3
Luis Angel Firpo
27 Sept
Platense Municipal
0 : 0
Fuerte San Francisco
24 Sept
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Fuerte San Francisco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luis Angel Firpo 14 8 4 2 26:11 28
2 FAS 13 8 3 2 24:12 27
3 Metapan 13 8 2 3 20:12 26
4 Inter Santa Tecla 14 5 7 2 19:12 22
5 Aguila 14 5 5 4 22:18 20
6 Platense Municipal 15 5 4 6 19:20 19
7 Alianza FC 13 4 6 3 20:19 18
8 Municipal Limeno 15 5 2 8 21:22 17
9 Inca Aruba 15 4 4 7 13:27 16
10 Atletico Balboa 14 3 4 7 15:22 13
11 Fuerte San Francisco 15 2 6 7 11:24 12
12 Cacahuatique 15 2 5 8 15:26 11
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)