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Incheon vs Gwangju FC

South Korea South Korea

K League 1 Sungui Arena Park, Incheon
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Ibiza J.
Assist: Lee Ju-Yong
26' Event
Ferrier M.
Assist: Lee Chung-Yong
46'
Sub
Kim Y. In: Gong B.
Out: Kim Y.

AI Match Summary

The K League 1 game between Incheon and Gwangju FC finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Incheon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Incheon
28%
Draws
22%
Gwangju FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Incheon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Incheon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Incheon a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Incheon Clean Sheet 68%
Gwangju FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Incheon Gwangju FC
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 5
Draws 4 8
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.25 0.25
Goals Conceded 0.5 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 K League 1
Incheon vs Gwangju FC
4:0
Mar 7, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Incheon
3:2
Oct 27, 2024 K League 1
Incheon vs Gwangju FC
1:0
Jul 14, 2024 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Incheon
0:2
May 25, 2024 K League 1
Incheon vs Gwangju FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Incheon Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibiza J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferrier M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Gwangju FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Incheon 59 / 100
Gwangju FC 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Incheon Gwangju FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick INC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Incheon scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Gwangju FC has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Incheon has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Incheon VS Gwangju FC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Incheon

(Home)
21 Jul
Ulsan Hyundai
1 : 2
Incheon
18 Jul
Incheon
1 : 0
Jeonbuk
12 Jul
Incheon
0 : 1
Anyang
05 Jul
Seoul
1 : 0
Incheon
16 May
Incheon
4 : 0
Gwangju FC
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Gwangju FC

(Away)
22 Jul
Gwangju FC
1 : 1
Gimcheon Sangmu
19 Jul
Anyang
1 : 1
Gwangju FC
11 Jul
Gwangju FC
0 : 3
Pohang
05 Jul
Gwangju FC
1 : 1
Ulsan Hyundai
16 May
Incheon
4 : 0
Gwangju FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Seoul19133334:1442
2Gangwon1988324:1232
3Jeonbuk1986525:1630
4Ulsan Hyundai1984727:2828
5Pohang1984720:1928
6Anyang1969426:2227
7Incheon1983824:2027
8Jeju SK1966717:1924
9Daejeon1948721:2020
10Bucheon FC 19951947817:2419
11Gimcheon Sangmu19211618:2617
12Gwangju FC19171110:4310
Promotion - K League 1 (Championship Group)
Relegation - K League 1 (Relegation Group)