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Ind. Medellin vs Vasco

South America South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
VS
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Sudamericana. This one's hard to separate. Ind. Medellin have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded recently, against Vasco's 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 1.31) point toward Ind. Medellin. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Ind. Medellin
28%
Draws
22%
Vasco
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Ind. Medellin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Ind. Medellin have won more games recently than Vasco.
  • Model gives Ind. Medellin a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Ind. Medellin have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Ind. Medellin Clean Sheet 68%
Vasco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ind. Medellin Vasco
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ind. Medellin 59 / 100
Vasco 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ind. Medellin Vasco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ind. Medellin scored in 85% of their last 34 games.

Vasco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Ind. Medellin stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Vasco lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ind. Medellin VS Vasco
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ind. Medellin

(Home)
02 Jun
Ind. Medellin
2 : 1
Cucuta
29 May
Leones
1 : 1
Ind. Medellin
27 May
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 0
Ind. Medellin
21 May
Cusco
2 : 3
Ind. Medellin
16 May
Orsomarso
1 : 1
Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 7

Vasco

(Away)
16 Jul
Vitoria
1 : 0
Vasco
31 May
Vasco
0 : 1
Atletico-MG
27 May
Vasco
3 : 0
Barracas Central
24 May
Vasco
0 : 3
Bragantino
20 May
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 1
Vasco
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Boca Juniors-
O Higgins-
TBD-
Recoleta-
Bolivar-
Gremio-
TBD-
Sao Paulo-
Santa Fe-
Caracas-
TBD-
River Plate-
Ind. Medellin-
Vasco-
TBD-
Olimpia Asuncion-
Sporting Cristal-
Bragantino-
TBD-
Atletico-MG-
Universidad Central-
Santos-
TBD-
Macara-
Club Nacional-
Tigre-
TBD-
Montevideo City-
Lanus-
Cienciano-
TBD-
Botafogo RJ-
1/8-finals
TBD-
Recoleta-
TBD-
Sao Paulo-
TBD-
River Plate-
TBD-
Olimpia Asuncion-
TBD-
Atletico-MG-
TBD-
Macara-
TBD-
Montevideo City-
TBD-
Botafogo RJ-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-