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Independente SP vs America SP - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Independente SP Logo

Independente SP

4 - 1
FT
America SP Logo

America SP

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Edipo
45' Event
Hiago
(Penalty)
45' Event
Iury
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Independente SP
15%
Draws
45%
America SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: America SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Independente SP lately — more wins on the board than America SP.
  • Independente SP are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Independente SP have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 19%
America SP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente SP America SP
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 22 10
Draws 4 11
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.98 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs America SP
4:1
Aug 9, 2026 Paulista B
America SP vs Independente SP
2:0
Feb 21, 2024 Paulista A4
America SP vs Independente SP
1:1
Feb 27, 2014 Paulista A3
America SP vs Independente SP
1:1
Jan 27, 2013 Paulista A3
Independente SP vs America SP
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Iury
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

America SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Edipo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente SP 42 / 100
America SP 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente SP America SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Independente SP scored in 68% of their last 40 outings.

Defensive concern: America SP conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Independente SP remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Independente SP VS America SP
3 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente SP

(Home)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
Page 1 of 8

America SP

(Away)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Itaqua
0 : 3
America SP
26 Jul
America SP
1 : 1
Itaqua
19 Jul
Jose Bonifacio EC
2 : 4
America SP
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3