Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Paulista A4 2021 game between Independente SP and Sao Carlos finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independente SP.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Independente SP
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Sao Carlos haven't matched Independente SP's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Carlos Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independente SP | Sao Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 9 |
| Draws | 2 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.32 | 1.4 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.27 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.51 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 13, 2026 Paulista B
Sao Carlos vs Independente SP
2:0
May 10, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Sao Carlos
2:1
Jun 21, 2025 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Sao Carlos
5:1
May 16, 2025 Paulista B
Sao Carlos vs Independente SP
3:0
Jun 24, 2023 Paulista A4
Independente SP vs Sao Carlos
4:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independente SP 36 / 100
Sao Carlos 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independente SP Sao Carlos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sao Carlos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Independente SP scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.
Sao Carlos has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Independente SP stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Independente SP VS Sao Carlos
3.88 Goals Scored 1.86
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.14
88% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 29%
38% Over 3.5 29%
Recent Form & Match History
Independente SP
(Home) 16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1 America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0 Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0 Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0 Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1 Paulinense
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16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1 America SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0 Flamengo SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1 Paulinense
05 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 0 Tupa
20 Jun
Independente SP
17 : 0 Catanduvense
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Sao Carlos
(Away) 05 Jul
Paulinense
2 : 0 Sao Carlos
27 Jun
Sao Carlos
0 : 1 Paulinense
20 Jun
Santacruzense
1 : 1 Sao Carlos
13 Jun
Sao Carlos
2 : 0 Independente SP
07 Jun
Matonense
1 : 1 Sao Carlos
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05 Jul
Paulinense
2 : 0 Sao Carlos
20 Jun
Santacruzense
1 : 1 Sao Carlos
07 Jun
Matonense
1 : 1 Sao Carlos
23 May
Mogi Mirim
3 : 1 Sao Carlos
10 May
Independente SP
2 : 1 Sao Carlos
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matonense | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | 23 |
| 2 | Taquaritinga | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:8 | 17 |
| 3 | Catanduva FC | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:11 | 15 |
| 4 | Inter de Bebedouro | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15:9 | 15 |
| 5 | Fernandopolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13:20 | 7 |
| 6 | America SP | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8:23 | 5 |
Promotion - Paulista A4 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XV de Jau | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 12:7 | 23 |
| 2 | Gremio Prudente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:10 | 17 |
| 3 | Vocem | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Assisense | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9:11 | 13 |
| 5 | Santacruzense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7:8 | 9 |
| 6 | Osvaldo Cruz | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7:17 | 5 |
Promotion - Paulista A4 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Branco SP | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 2 | Independente SP | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12:9 | 18 |
| 3 | Sao-Carlense | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12:6 | 17 |
| 4 | Sao Carlos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:13 | 11 |
| 5 | Itapirense | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5:12 | 6 |
| 6 | Mogi Mirim | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3:11 | 6 |
Promotion - Paulista A4 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo SP | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18:5 | 26 |
| 2 | Paulista | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:7 | 18 |
| 3 | Colorado Caieiras | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 4 | Mauaense | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14:22 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarulhos | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14:21 | 9 |
| 6 | Barcelona SP | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:21 | 6 |
Promotion - Paulista A4 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uniao Suzano | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 24:3 | 26 |
| 2 | Maua FC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23:9 | 21 |
| 3 | Uniao Mogi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15:10 | 13 |
| 4 | ECUS SP | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:22 | 13 |
| 5 | Manthiqueira | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13:12 | 12 |
| 6 | Atletico Mogi | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6:37 | 0 |
Promotion - Paulista A4 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
