Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Independente vs Carajas

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independente in this Paraense B1 2024 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Independente
35%
Draws
25%
Carajas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Independente lately — more wins on the board than Carajas.
  • Independente are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Independente have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Independente Clean Sheet 20%
Carajas Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente Carajas
Matches Played 31 24
Wins 10 4
Draws 12 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 9, 2024 Paraense A2
Independente vs Carajas
1:0
Nov 3, 2024 Paraense A2
Carajas vs Independente
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Paraense A2
Carajas vs Independente
2:3
Sep 22, 2024 Paraense A2
Independente vs Carajas
0:2
Apr 16, 2021 Paraense
Independente vs Carajas
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente 58 / 100
Carajas 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente Carajas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

Carajas has conceded goals in 75% of their last 24 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Independente remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Independente VS Carajas
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente

(Home)
07 Jun
Independente
0 : 0
Itupiranga
04 Jun
Itupiranga
1 : 0
Independente
30 May
Independente
3 : 0
Uniao Paraense
13 May
Izabelense
1 : 2
Independente
09 May
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
Independente
Page 1 of 7

Carajas

(Away)
10 Jun
Carajas
0 : 1
Izabelense
05 Jun
Izabelense
2 : 1
Carajas
30 May
Carajas
0 : 0
Itupiranga
16 May
Atletico Paraense
0 : 2
Carajas
09 May
Itupiranga
1 : 1
Carajas
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Capitao Poco 2
Izabelense 0
Amazonia IFC 0
Paragominas 5
Carajas 2
Sao Raimundo PA 1
ESMAC 1
Independente 3
Semi-finals
Capitao Poco 3
Paragominas 0
Carajas 1
Independente 2
Final
Capitao Poco 1
Independente 2