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Stadium Background

Independente vs ESMAC

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Independente advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Independente
35%
Draws
13%
ESMAC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Independente carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Independente's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Independente have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Independente Clean Sheet 20%
ESMAC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente ESMAC
Matches Played 30 14
Wins 9 2
Draws 12 5
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.1 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2024 Paraense A2
Independente vs ESMAC
3:0
Oct 21, 2024 Paraense A2
ESMAC vs Independente
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente 85 / 100
ESMAC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente ESMAC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ESMAC has conceded goals in 93% of their last 14 outings.

Independente found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Independente remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Independente VS ESMAC
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente

(Home)
07 Jun
Independente
0 : 0
Itupiranga
04 Jun
Itupiranga
1 : 0
Independente
30 May
Independente
3 : 0
Uniao Paraense
13 May
Izabelense
1 : 2
Independente
09 May
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
Independente
Page 1 of 6

ESMAC

(Away)
23 Sept
ESMAC
0 : 5
Pedreira
16 Sept
Venus
5 : 2
ESMAC
13 Sept
Pedreira
3 : 1
ESMAC
05 Sept
ESMAC
1 : 1
Venus
23 Jun
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
ESMAC
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Capitao Poco 2
Izabelense 0
Amazonia IFC 0
Paragominas 5
Carajas 2
Sao Raimundo PA 1
ESMAC 1
Independente 3
Semi-finals
Capitao Poco 3
Paragominas 0
Carajas 1
Independente 2
Final
Capitao Poco 1
Independente 2