Sport Picks
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
South America
Copa Libertadores Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito 
Match Events
58'
58'
Parra Osorio A.
59'
59'
Romero Padilla D. A.
62'
62'
Sub
Aguayo S. In: Lopez E.
Out: Aguayo S.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
35%
19%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independiente del Valle
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Deportes Tolima haven't matched Independiente del Valle's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Independiente del Valle's way, sitting at 40%.
- Independiente del Valle have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Independiente del Valle, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independiente del Valle | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 23 | 11 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 3 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.38 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima
3:1
Aug 19, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
0:1
May 5, 2022 Copa Libertadores
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
1:0
Apr 14, 2022 Copa Libertadores
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Independiente del Valle Compare
Top Goalscorer Romero Padilla D. A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gonzalez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Deportes Tolima Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independiente del Valle 50 / 100
Deportes Tolima 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independiente del Valle Deportes Tolima
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Independiente del Valle Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Independiente del Valle found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).
Deportes Tolima's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.50 goals.
Solid form: Independiente del Valle remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Independiente del Valle VS Deportes Tolima
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Independiente del Valle
(Home) 25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
29 Aug
Independiente del Valle
2 : 2 U. Catolica
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
15 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 2 Delfin
Page 1 of 3
Deportes Tolima
(Away) 08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
03 Oct
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Chico
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2 Deportes Tolima
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 6
08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2 Deportes Tolima
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 4
U. Catolica 1
Rosario Central 0
Corinthians 1
Deportes Tolima 1
Independiente del Valle 4
Cruzeiro 2
Flamengo RJ 3
Mirassol 1
LDU Quito 2
Palmeiras 2
Cerro Porteno 1
Platense 2
Coquimbo 1
Fluminense 2
Ind. Rivadavia 1
Quarter-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 2
Corinthians 1
Independiente del Valle 1
Flamengo RJ 3
LDU Quito 3
Palmeiras 4
Platense 2
Fluminense 3
Semi-finals
Estudiantes L.P. -
Flamengo RJ -
Palmeiras -
Fluminense -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
