Sport Picks
Independiente del Valle vs Macara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ecuador
Liga Pro Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito 
Match Events
8'
8'
Reasco D.
Assist: Briones R.
10'
10'
Reasco D.
Assist: Briones R.
15'
15'
Briones R.
Assist: Perello M.
AI Match Summary
Independiente del Valle in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independiente del Valle.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Macara
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Independiente del Valle lately — more wins on the board than Macara.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Independiente del Valle taking it.
- Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Independiente del Valle here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 16%
Macara Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independiente del Valle | Macara |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 24 | 16 |
| Draws | 2 | 6 |
| Losses | 3 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.48 | 1.35 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Macara
3:1
May 16, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Independiente del Valle
0:3
Jul 12, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Independiente del Valle
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Macara
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Macara
7:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Independiente del Valle Compare
Top Goalscorer Reasco D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Briones R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Macara Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independiente del Valle 36 / 100
Macara 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independiente del Valle Macara
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Independiente del Valle scored in 97% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Macara let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.
Independiente del Valle went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Independiente del Valle VS Macara
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Independiente del Valle
(Home) 25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
29 Aug
Independiente del Valle
2 : 2 U. Catolica
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
15 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 2 Delfin
Page 1 of 3
Macara
(Away) 19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2 Macara
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0 Emelec
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3 Manta
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2 Macara
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2 Macara
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2 Macara
25 Aug
Libertad
1 : 0 Macara
13 Aug
Santos
2 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico U. | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | 21 |
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)
