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Independiente vs Guabira

South America South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Olímpico Patria, Sucre
Independiente Logo

Independiente

Tue, Mar 3, 2026
1 - 0
10:00 PM
Guabira Logo

Guabira

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Cardozo R.
32'
Anez C.
45'
Somoya M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Independiente
20%
Draws
47%
Guabira
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guabira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Independiente haven't matched Guabira's recent run of results.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Guabira arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independiente, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Independiente Clean Sheet 12%
Guabira Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independiente Guabira
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1.64
Goals Conceded 2 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Division Profesional
Guabira vs Independiente
2:2
Mar 3, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Independiente vs Guabira
1:0
Dec 2, 2025 Division Profesional
Independiente vs Guabira
3:1
Aug 14, 2025 Copa Pacena
Guabira vs Independiente
3:1
Jul 1, 2025 Division Profesional
Guabira vs Independiente
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente 30 / 100
Guabira 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independiente Guabira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guabira Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guabira conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Independiente's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Independiente stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independiente VS Guabira
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Independiente

(Home)
08 Aug
The Strongest
1 : 2
Independiente
04 Aug
Independiente
1 : 1
Aurora
01 Aug
Real Oruro
0 : 3
Independiente
25 Jul
Independiente
1 : 2
Oriente Petrolero
21 Jul
Independiente
1 : 2
Real Potosi
Page 1 of 6

Guabira

(Away)
07 Aug
Academia del Balompie
0 : 1
Guabira
05 Aug
Guabira
3 : 0
Tomayapo
31 Jul
Club Universitario de Vinto
1 : 1
Guabira
25 Jul
Guabira
4 : 1
Real Oruro
18 Jul
Bolivar
4 : 0
Guabira
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Nacional Asuncion 1
Recoleta 2
Sportivo Trinidense 0
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Alianza Atl. 2
Deportivo Garcilaso 0
Cienciano 2
FBC Melgar 1
Montevideo City 1
Defensor Sp. 0
Boston River 1
Racing Montevideo 0
Academia Puerto Cabello 1
Monagas 0
Caracas 1
Metropolitanos 0
U. De Chile 1
Palestino 2
Cobresal 1
A. Italiano 2
Atl. Nacional 1
Millonarios 3
America De Cali 2
Bucaramanga 1
Independiente 1
Guabira 0
Blooming 3
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 0
Dep. Cuenca 3
Libertad 0
Orense 0
Macara 1