Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Independiente Valle del Cauca vs Orsomarso Prediction & H2H Stats

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Municipal Raul Miranda, Yumbo (COL)
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Ampudia J.
28'
Sub
Garcia A. In: Farias L.
Out: Garcia A.
37' Event
Farias L.

AI Match Summary

The Primera B game between Independiente Valle del Cauca and Orsomarso finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente Valle del Cauca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Independiente Valle del Cauca
20%
Draws
7%
Orsomarso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Independiente Valle del Cauca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independiente Valle del Cauca come out ahead of Orsomarso on wins alone.
  • Model gives Independiente Valle del Cauca a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 11%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Independiente Valle del Cauca Clean Sheet 68%
Orsomarso Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independiente Valle del Cauca Orsomarso
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 6
Draws 9 11
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2026 Primera B
Independiente Valle del Cauca vs Orsomarso
4:3
Mar 21, 2026 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Independiente Valle del Cauca
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente Valle del Cauca Compare

Top Goalscorer Farias L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pena F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Orsomarso Compare

Top Goalscorer Caicedo B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barrios D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente Valle del Cauca 95 / 100
Orsomarso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independiente Valle del Cauca Orsomarso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independiente Valle del Cauca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Independiente Valle del Cauca scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Orsomarso has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Independiente Valle del Cauca stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independiente Valle del Cauca VS Orsomarso
1 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Independiente Valle del Cauca

(Home)
28 Sept
Independiente Valle del Cauca
4 : 3
Orsomarso
22 Sept
Independiente Valle del Cauca
0 : 1
Inter Palmira
15 Sept
Barranquilla
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
09 Sept
Independiente Valle del Cauca
0 : 0
Quindio
04 Sept
Bogota
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
Page 1 of 6

Orsomarso

(Away)
28 Sept
Independiente Valle del Cauca
4 : 3
Orsomarso
22 Sept
Real Santander
0 : 0
Orsomarso
14 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Atletico F.C.
10 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Tigres Futbol Club
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Cundinamarca 10 6 2 2 17:9 20
2 Independiente Valle del Cauca 10 6 2 2 14:6 20
3 Tigres Futbol Club 10 5 3 2 12:4 18
4 Patriotas 10 5 2 3 17:16 17
5 Cartagena 10 4 3 3 17:11 15
6 Boca Juniors de Cali 9 4 2 3 14:11 14
7 Atletico F.C. 10 4 2 4 12:15 14
8 Inter Palmira 10 4 2 4 8:11 14
9 Quindio 10 3 4 3 8:8 13
10 Real Santander 10 2 6 2 12:15 12
11 Bogota 10 3 2 5 6:10 11
12 Envigado 9 2 4 3 9:8 10
13 Orsomarso 9 2 3 4 7:10 9
14 Leones 10 2 3 5 7:16 9
15 Union Magdalena 9 2 2 5 6:10 8
16 Barranquilla 10 2 2 6 10:16 8
Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular)