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Industria vs Estrela Vendas Novas

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Zequinha

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Industria and Estrela Vendas Novas finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Industria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Industria
20%
Draws
0%
Estrela Vendas Novas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Industria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Industria come out ahead of Estrela Vendas Novas on wins alone.
  • Industria are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Industria Clean Sheet 16%
Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Industria Estrela Vendas Novas
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 10 2
Draws 10 2
Losses 18 26
Goals Scored 1.13 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.53 2.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Estrela Vendas Novas vs Industria
0:2
Jan 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Industria vs Estrela Vendas Novas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Industria Compare

Top Goalscorer Zequinha
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Estrela Vendas Novas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Industria 66 / 100
Estrela Vendas Novas 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Industria Estrela Vendas Novas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Industria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Estrela Vendas Novas conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Away concern: Estrela Vendas Novas has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Industria scored in 63% of their last 38 games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Industria VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Industria

(Home)
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Industria
0 : 0
O Elvas CAD
04 Apr
Juv. Evora
1 : 1
Industria
22 Mar
Industria
1 : 4
Louletano
15 Mar
Sintrense
1 : 0
Industria
Page 1 of 8

Estrela Vendas Novas

(Away)
13 Apr
Estrela Vendas Novas
0 : 2
Industria
06 Apr
Moncarapachense
6 : 1
Estrela Vendas Novas
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3
FC Barreirense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4
Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Operario
2 : 1
Estrela Vendas Novas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)