Sport Picks

USA

US Open Cup Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Union Omaha

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Indy Eleven play Union Omaha in the US Open Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Indy Eleven averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Union Omaha averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Indy Eleven won 0, Union Omaha won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Indy Eleven and 0.81 for Union Omaha. This points to a Union Omaha double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Indy Eleven

16%

Draws

47%

Union Omaha

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Union Omaha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Indy Eleven picked up more points recently compared to Union Omaha.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Indy Eleven Clean Sheet 26%

Union Omaha Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Indy Eleven	Union Omaha
Matches Played	27	29
Wins	12	16
Draws	6	3
Losses	9	10
Goals Scored	1.33	1.69
Goals Conceded	1.07	1.28
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.25	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 USL Cup

Indy Eleven vs Union Omaha

Possession: 60% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Mar 31, 2026 US Open Cup

Indy Eleven vs Union Omaha

Possession: 47% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Indy Eleven Compare

Top Goalscorer Blake J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Union Omaha Compare

Top Goalscorer Owusu S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tekiela K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indy Eleven 39 / 100

Union Omaha 44 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Indy Eleven Union Omaha

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Union Omaha or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Indy Eleven attacking → ← attacking Union Omaha

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Indy Eleven scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Union Omaha let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Indy Eleven went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Union Omaha lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 51

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75