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Iran vs New Zealand

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World Championship 2026 SoFi Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Iran play New Zealand in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iran averaged 1.79 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. New Zealand averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Iran won 0, New Zealand won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 16, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Iran and 0.75 for New Zealand. This points to a Iran double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Iran
18%
Draws
33%
New Zealand
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Iran

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Iran picked up more points recently compared to New Zealand.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Iran Clean Sheet 27%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iran New Zealand
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 7 3
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 1.79 2.14
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2026 World Championship
Iran vs New Zealand
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iran Compare

Top Goalscorer Rezaeian R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mohebi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

New Zealand Compare

Top Goalscorer Just E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iran 50 / 100
New Zealand 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iran New Zealand

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Iran or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iran attacking → ← attacking New Zealand

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iran scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

New Zealand let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Iran went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

New Zealand lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 39
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

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