Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Sergio León Chavez

Irapuato

4 - 1

Leones Negros

Our Tip

Match Events

Munoz D.

Elbis

18'

Nuno M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Irapuato in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Irapuato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Irapuato

20%

Draws

38%

Leones Negros

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Irapuato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Leones Negros haven't matched Irapuato's recent run of results.
42% — that's where the model lands on Irapuato taking it.
Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Irapuato Clean Sheet 16%

Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Irapuato	Leones Negros
Matches Played	32	31
Wins	12	8
Draws	11	8
Losses	9	15
Goals Scored	1.88	0.88
Goals Conceded	2.13	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.13	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX

Irapuato vs Leones Negros

Possession: 52% - 51% Cards: 3 - 4

4:1

Aug 10, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX

Leones Negros vs Irapuato

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 1 - 2

4:2

Apr 21, 2013 Liga de Expansion MX

Irapuato vs Leones Negros

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Nov 2, 2012 Liga de Expansion MX

Leones Negros vs Irapuato

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 2 - 0

1:1

Mar 31, 2012 Liga de Expansion MX

Leones Negros vs Irapuato

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Irapuato Compare

Top Goalscorer Castellanos R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Sanchez B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Leones Negros Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Irapuato 41 / 100

Leones Negros 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Irapuato Leones Negros

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Irapuato scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Leones Negros has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Irapuato remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Irapuato VS Leones Negros

1.88 Goals Scored 0.88

2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38

100% Over 1.5 88%

88% Over 2.5 38%

50% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tepatitlan de Morelos	14	7	5	2	21:10	26
2	Cancun	14	7	4	3	24:17	25
3	Club Atletico Morelia	14	7	2	5	18:12	23
4	Atletico La Paz	14	5	7	2	22:12	22
5	Jaiba Brava	14	6	3	5	15:15	21
6	Zacatecas Mineros	14	6	3	5	19:20	21
7	Tapatio	14	6	2	6	28:24	20
8	Atlante	14	5	5	4	21:17	20
9	Irapuato	14	6	2	6	27:24	20
10	Tlaxcala	14	5	5	4	16:17	20
11	Venados FC	14	4	4	6	25:25	16
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	4	4	6	20:29	16
13	Dorados de Sinaloa	14	3	4	7	17:28	13
14	Correcaminos	14	3	3	8	14:27	12
15	Leones Negros	14	2	5	7	15:25	11