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Irapuato vs Tritones Vallarta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Primera Premier
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Irapuato host Tritones Vallarta in the Primera Premier. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Irapuato at 1.72 goals for, 1.45 against; Tritones Vallarta at 1.03 for, 1.03 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 0.63) point toward Irapuato. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Irapuato
20%
Draws
9%
Tritones Vallarta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Irapuato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Irapuato's 1.72 goals per match outpaces what Tritones Vallarta have produced (1.03).
  • 71% — that's where the model lands on Irapuato taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Irapuato Clean Sheet 20%
Tritones Vallarta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Irapuato Tritones Vallarta
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.72 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Irapuato 85 / 100
Tritones Vallarta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Irapuato Tritones Vallarta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Irapuato Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Irapuato has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Irapuato's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Tritones Vallarta has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Tritones Vallarta registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Irapuato VS Tritones Vallarta
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Irapuato

(Home)
27 Sept
Irapuato
3 : 0
Lobos ULMX
22 Sept
Reboceros de La Piedad
2 : 3
Irapuato
13 Sept
Irapuato
2 : 1
Tigres de Alica
05 Sept
Cordobes FC
0 : 3
Irapuato
30 Aug
Irapuato
2 : 1
Los Cabos United
Page 1 of 6

Tritones Vallarta

(Away)
04 Oct
Lobos ULMX
2 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
27 Sept
Tigres de Alica
1 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
20 Sept
Los Cabos United
1 : 0
Tritones Vallarta
11 Sept
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 1
Zacatepec
28 Aug
Tritones Vallarta
0 : 1
Reboceros de La Piedad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Irapuato 5 5 0 0 13:4 16
2 Reboceros de La Piedad 6 5 0 1 12:7 14
3 Tigres de Alica 6 3 2 1 9:6 11
4 Zacatepec 6 3 1 2 8:7 11
5 Los Cabos United 7 3 0 4 7:9 9
6 Cordobes FC 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
7 Lobos ULMX 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
8 Tritones Vallarta 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
9 Purepechas 5 0 1 4 1:7 1
Promotion - Primera Premier (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 5 3 2 0 16:6 13
2 Pioneros 5 4 0 1 14:6 13
3 Celaya 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Jaguares De Chiapas 5 2 1 2 5:5 8
5 Deportiva Venados 5 1 2 2 9:9 6
6 Montaneses 6 2 1 3 9:12 6
7 Chapulineros 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
8 Inter Playa Del Carmen 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
9 Tapachula 5 1 0 4 5:14 3
Promotion - Primera Premier (Play Offs)