Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iraq vs Bahrain

World World

FIFA Arab Cup Stadium 974, Doha
Iraq Logo

Iraq

2 - 1
FT
Bahrain Logo

Bahrain

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Lutfalla E.
Own Goal
18'
Sub
Lutfalla E. In: Salem O.
Out: Lutfalla E.
25' Event
Ali M.
Assist: Jasim S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Iraq
15%
Draws
73%
Bahrain
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bahrain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Iraq carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Bahrain's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Iraq have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bahrain, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Iraq Clean Sheet 25%
Bahrain Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iraq Bahrain
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 7
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 0.9 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 3, 2025 FIFA Arab Cup
Iraq vs Bahrain
2:1
Dec 25, 2024 Arabian Gulf Cup
Bahrain vs Iraq
2:0
Dec 3, 2021 FIFA Arab Cup
Bahrain vs Iraq
0:0
Dec 5, 2019 Arabian Gulf Cup
Iraq vs Bahrain
2:3
Nov 19, 2019 World Championship
Iraq vs Bahrain
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Ali M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Bahrain Compare

Top Goalscorer Sayed Hashim
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iraq 13 / 100
Bahrain 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iraq Bahrain

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahrain Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahrain has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Iraq scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Bahrain lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Iraq VS Bahrain
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Iraq

(Home)
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
22 Jun
France
3 : 0
Iraq
16 Jun
Iraq
1 : 4
Norway
10 Jun
Iraq
0 : 2
Venezuela
04 Jun
Spain
1 : 1
Iraq
Page 1 of 6

Bahrain

(Away)
05 Jun
Georgia
2 : 0
Bahrain
09 Dec
Bahrain
3 : 1
Sudan
06 Dec
Bahrain
1 : 5
Algeria
03 Dec
Iraq
2 : 1
Bahrain
26 Nov
Bahrain
1 : 0
Djibouti
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palestine 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
2 Syria 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Tunisia 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
4 Qatar 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
Promotion - FIFA Arab Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
2 Saudi Arabia 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
3 Oman 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
4 Comoros 3 0 0 3 3:8 0
Promotion - FIFA Arab Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jordan 3 3 0 0 8:2 9
2 United Arab Emirates 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
3 Egypt 3 0 2 1 2:5 2
4 Kuwait 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
Promotion - FIFA Arab Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
2 Iraq 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
3 Bahrain 3 1 0 2 5:8 3
4 Sudan 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
Promotion - FIFA Arab Cup (Play Offs)