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Iraq vs Indonesia

World World

World Championship 2026 King Abdullah Sports City
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Iraq play Indonesia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iraq averaged 0.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. Indonesia averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Iraq won 4, Indonesia won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 11, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Iraq and 1.21 for Indonesia. This points to a Iraq double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Iraq
20%
Draws
33%
Indonesia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Iraq

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Iraq picked up more points recently compared to Indonesia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.21 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%
Iraq Clean Sheet 20%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iraq Indonesia
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.94 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 World Championship
Iraq vs Indonesia
1:0
Jun 6, 2024 World Championship
Indonesia vs Iraq
0:2
Jan 15, 2024 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs Iraq
1:3
Nov 16, 2023 World Championship
Iraq vs Indonesia
5:1
Nov 12, 2015 World Championship
Iraq vs Indonesia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Iqbal Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Indonesia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.93

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iraq 46 / 100
Indonesia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iraq Indonesia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Iraq or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iraq attacking → ← attacking Indonesia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iraq scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Indonesia let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Iraq went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Indonesia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 39
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.67
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.83

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Qatar21102:14
2United Arab Emirates21013:33
3Oman20111:21
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Saudi Arabia21103:24
2Iraq21101:04
3Indonesia20022:40