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Iraq vs Indonesia

World World

World Championship 2026 King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Verdonk C.
44'
Kambuaya R.
46'
Sub
Kambuaya R. In: Oratmangoen R.
Out: Kambuaya R.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Iraq and Indonesia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Iraq.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Iraq
6%
Draws
90%
Indonesia
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Iraq come out ahead of Indonesia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Indonesia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Iraq have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Iraq Clean Sheet 22%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iraq Indonesia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 World Championship
Iraq vs Indonesia
1:0
Jun 6, 2024 World Championship
Indonesia vs Iraq
0:2
Jan 15, 2024 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs Iraq
1:3
Nov 16, 2023 World Championship
Iraq vs Indonesia
5:1
Nov 12, 2015 World Championship
Iraq vs Indonesia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Iqbal Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Indonesia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iraq 10 / 100
Indonesia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iraq Indonesia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Iraq scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Indonesia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Iraq remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Iraq VS Indonesia
1 Goals Scored 1.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.33
63% Over 1.5 33%
25% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Iraq

(Home)
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
22 Jun
France
3 : 0
Iraq
16 Jun
Iraq
1 : 4
Norway
10 Jun
Iraq
0 : 2
Venezuela
04 Jun
Spain
1 : 1
Iraq
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Indonesia

(Away)
09 Jun
Indonesia
1 : 0
Mozambique
05 Jun
Indonesia
3 : 0
Oman
30 Mar
Indonesia
0 : 1
Bulgaria
27 Mar
Indonesia
4 : 0
Saint Kitts and Nevis
11 Oct
Iraq
1 : 0
Indonesia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Qatar21102:14
2United Arab Emirates21013:33
3Oman20111:21
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fifth stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Saudi Arabia21103:24
2Iraq21101:04
3Indonesia20022:40
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fifth stage)