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Israel W vs Bulgaria W

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women Arok utcai palya (BSC - Budaors)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Israel W play Bulgaria W in the UEFA Nations League Women. Israel W are favorites here. Recently, Israel W averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Bulgaria W averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. In past meetings, Israel W won 3, Bulgaria W won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 8, 2025 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Israel W and 1.56 for Bulgaria W. This points to a Israel W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Israel W
17%
Draws
27%
Bulgaria W
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Israel W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Israel W picked up more points recently compared to Bulgaria W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Israel W Clean Sheet 15%
Bulgaria W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Israel W Bulgaria W
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 13 8
Draws 3 5
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.93 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Israel W vs Bulgaria W
3:3
Feb 21, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Bulgaria W vs Israel W
1:3
Sep 1, 2022 World Cup Women
Israel W vs Bulgaria W
2:0
Jun 23, 2022 World Cup Women
Bulgaria W vs Israel W
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Israel W Compare

Top Goalscorer Sommer T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Avital E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Bulgaria W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanova D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rasina P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Israel W 53 / 100
Bulgaria W 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Israel W Bulgaria W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Israel W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Israel W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.5%
2.08
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Israel W attacking → ← attacking Bulgaria W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Israel W scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Bulgaria W let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Israel W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Bulgaria W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 29
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Slovakia W660027:118
2Faroe Islands W631210:610
3Moldova W62136:67
4Gibraltar W60060:300
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Malta W64118:513
2Cyprus W63129:810
3Georgia W62049:116
4Andorra W61236:85
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Luxembourg W651020:616
2Kazakhstan W631214:910
3Armenia W621313:117
4Liechtenstein W60155:261
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Montenegro W42205:28
2Azerbaijan W41213:65
3Lithuania W41036:63
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Israel W431012:510
2Estonia W41122:64
3Bulgaria W40224:72
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Latvia W42206:48
2Kosovo W42119:37
3North Macedonia W40132:101