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Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Sardor Tursunzoda

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Vysshaya Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Vysshaya Liga game between Istiqlol Dushanbe and Sardor Tursunzoda finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
6%
Draws
4%
Sardor Tursunzoda
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Sardor Tursunzoda haven't matched Istiqlol Dushanbe's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Istiqlol Dushanbe's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 20%
Sardor Tursunzoda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istiqlol Dushanbe Sardor Tursunzoda
Matches Played 32 14
Wins 20 2
Draws 7 4
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.5 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Sardor Tursunzoda vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:1
Mar 7, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Sardor Tursunzoda
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 85 / 100
Sardor Tursunzoda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istiqlol Dushanbe Sardor Tursunzoda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Sardor Tursunzoda has conceded goals in 79% of their last 14 outings.

Recent resilience: Istiqlol Dushanbe stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Sardor Tursunzoda's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Sardor Tursunzoda
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Istiqlol Dushanbe1174014:325
2Khosilot Parkhar1273223:1124
3Regar-TadAZ1173115:724
4CSKA Pomir Dushanbe1161414:1219
5Ravshan Kulob1252516:1317
6Barkchi Hisor1251615:1916
7Khujand1244411:1016
8Eskhata1242614:2314
9Vakhsh1235415:1614
10Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov1233610:1712
11Sardor Tursunzoda1213813:216
12Istaravshan110569:175