Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istres vs Frejus Saint Raphael

France France

National 2 - Group C 2025/2026 Stade Parsemain, Fos-sur-Mer
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Kadir F.
50' Event
Mokhtari A.
60' Event
Mokhtari A.

AI Match Summary

The National 2 - Group C 2025/2026 game between Istres and Frejus Saint Raphael finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Istres.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Istres
30%
Draws
47%
Frejus Saint Raphael
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Frejus Saint Raphael

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Istres come out ahead of Frejus Saint Raphael on wins alone.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Istres Clean Sheet 18%
Frejus Saint Raphael Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istres Frejus Saint Raphael
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 10 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.19 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Istres vs Frejus Saint Raphael
4:0
Nov 8, 2025 National 1 - Group C
Frejus Saint Raphael vs Istres
3:4
Mar 8, 2025 National 1 - Group A
Istres vs Frejus Saint Raphael
0:0
Oct 5, 2024 National 1 - Group A
Frejus Saint Raphael vs Istres
3:1
Jul 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Istres vs Frejus Saint Raphael
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istres Compare

Top Goalscorer Mokhtari A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kadir F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Frejus Saint Raphael Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istres 32 / 100
Frejus Saint Raphael 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istres Frejus Saint Raphael

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Frejus Saint Raphael Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Frejus Saint Raphael's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Istres's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Istres has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Istres VS Frejus Saint Raphael
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Istres

(Home)
19 Sept
Limonest
1 : 1
Istres
12 Sept
Istres
0 : 0
Touraine
05 Sept
Hyeres
3 : 0
Istres
29 Aug
Istres
1 : 2
Hauts Lyonnais
22 Aug
Troyes II
0 : 0
Istres
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Frejus Saint Raphael

(Away)
19 Sept
Frejus Saint Raphael
2 : 4
GOAL FC
12 Sept
Toulon
3 : 1
Frejus Saint Raphael
05 Sept
Frejus Saint Raphael
2 : 0
Andrezieux
29 Aug
Nimes
3 : 0
Frejus Saint Raphael
22 Aug
Frejus Saint Raphael
3 : 0
Saint Priest
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cannes 30 17 9 4 53:30 60
2 Nimes 30 18 5 7 46:25 59
3 St. Maur Lusitanos 30 15 10 5 40:24 55
4 Rumilly Vallieres 30 13 8 9 49:36 47
5 Hyeres 30 11 12 7 36:27 45
6 Andrezieux 30 12 9 9 48:33 45
7 Istres 30 11 10 9 42:32 43
8 Creteil 30 12 7 11 36:34 43
9 GOAL FC 30 11 8 11 38:46 40
10 RC Grasse 30 9 9 12 41:42 36
11 Frejus Saint Raphael 30 9 8 13 37:50 35
12 Limonest 30 9 7 14 36:49 34
13 FC Bobigny 93 30 7 11 12 29:31 32
14 Toulon 30 8 10 12 38:47 31
15 Saint Priest 30 7 9 14 35:50 30
16 Rousset Ste Victoire 30 2 6 22 28:76 12
Promotion - Ligue 3 (Main)