Sport Picks
Itabaiana vs America de Propria
Brazil
Sergipano Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, Itabaiana 
Match Events
26'
26'
Gustavo Crecci
39'
39'
Renato
53'
53'
Dione
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itabaiana
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Itabaiana carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Itabaiana's way, sitting at 40%.
- Itabaiana have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Itabaiana, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 49%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 68%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Itabaiana | America de Propria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 36 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Draws | 13 | 11 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.68 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs America de Propria
1:0
Feb 11, 2026 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Itabaiana
0:3
Mar 15, 2025 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs America de Propria
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Itabaiana
1:1
Jan 25, 2025 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Itabaiana
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Itabaiana Compare
Top Goalscorer Pedro Igor
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.84
America de Propria Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Itabaiana 50 / 100
America de Propria 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Itabaiana America de Propria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Itabaiana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
America de Propria lost 5 of their last 5 games.
Itabaiana's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 36 recent games.
America de Propria let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Itabaiana VS America de Propria
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.6
38% Over 1.5 60%
25% Over 2.5 60%
25% Over 3.5 60%
Recent Form & Match History
Itabaiana
(Home) 29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2 Botafogo PB
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1 Itabaiana
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0 Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2 SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1 Itabaiana
Page 1 of 8
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2 Botafogo PB
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2 SER Caxias do Sul
13 Jul
Itabaiana
1 : 0 Brusque
27 Jun
Itabaiana
1 : 0 Ferroviaria
14 Jun
Itabaiana
2 : 2 Ituano
Page 1 of 4
America de Propria
(Away) 13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0 America de Propria
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3 Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5 Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2 America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1 Lagarto
Page 1 of 6
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0 America de Propria
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2 America de Propria
08 Mar
Itabaiana
1 : 0 America de Propria
01 Mar
Sergipe
2 : 1 America de Propria
22 Feb
Lagarto
0 : 3 America de Propria
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Sergipe -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
America de Propria 3
Itabaiana 1
Falcon 0
Confianca 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Sergipe 3
America de Propria 2
Itabaiana 2
Confianca 3
Final
Sergipe 2
Confianca 1
Itabaiana 1
America de Propria 0
