Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Itabirito vs Democrata GV

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes, Nova Lima
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Bryan Garcia
Penalty Missed
61'
Sub
Dudu Pedrotti In: Mauricio Ferreira
Out: Dudu Pedrotti
63'
Sub
Ruan Levine In: Luis Araujo
Out: Ruan Levine

AI Match Summary

Democrata GV in this Mineiro matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Democrata GV.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Itabirito
39%
Draws
30%
Democrata GV
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Itabirito haven't matched Democrata GV's recent run of results.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Itabirito Clean Sheet 12%
Democrata GV Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabirito Democrata GV
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 10 7
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.75 0.5
Goals Conceded 3 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Mineiro
Itabirito vs Democrata GV
0:1
Jan 24, 2024 Mineiro
Democrata GV vs Itabirito
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabirito Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Democrata GV Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcio Jonatan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabirito 30 / 100
Democrata GV 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabirito Democrata GV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DGV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabirito found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Democrata GV let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Itabirito went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabirito VS Democrata GV
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
3 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 13%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabirito

(Home)
14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7
Atletico-MG
06 Feb
Betim FC
0 : 2
Itabirito
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3
Tombense
24 Jan
URT
2 : 1
Itabirito
21 Jan
Uberlandia
0 : 1
Itabirito
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Democrata GV

(Away)
29 Jun
Democrata GV
1 : 1
Ivinhema
21 Jun
Ivinhema
3 : 1
Democrata GV
14 Jun
Real Noroeste
0 : 0
Democrata GV
31 May
Democrata GV
3 : 1
Rio Branco ES
25 May
Democrata GV
3 : 1
Porto-BA
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico-MG835016:814
2URT83237:711
3Uberlandia82338:129
4Democrata GV82153:87
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1America MG843110:615
2Pouso Alegre841314:1413
3Tombense833210:712
4Betim FC82336:99
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cruzeiro850314:715
2North Esporte Clube832314:1111
3Itabirito821510:177
4Athletic Club81437:137
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)