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Itabirito vs Villa Real

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Villa Real in this Mineiro 3 2022 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Itabirito
15%
Draws
46%
Villa Real
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Villa Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Villa Real have won more games recently than Itabirito.
  • Model gives Itabirito a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Villa Real arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Villa Real, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Villa Real have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Itabirito Clean Sheet 18%
Villa Real Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabirito Villa Real
Matches Played 37 26
Wins 10 11
Draws 10 4
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2022 Mineiro 3
Itabirito vs Villa Real
0:1
Oct 8, 2022 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Itabirito
0:1
Sep 4, 2022 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Itabirito
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabirito 67 / 100
Villa Real 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabirito Villa Real

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabirito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabirito scored in 70% of their last 37 games.

Villa Real's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Itabirito has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Itabirito VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabirito

(Home)
14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7
Atletico-MG
06 Feb
Betim FC
0 : 2
Itabirito
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3
Tombense
24 Jan
URT
2 : 1
Itabirito
21 Jan
Uberlandia
0 : 1
Itabirito
Page 1 of 8

Villa Real

(Away)
19 Oct
Villa Real
1 : 1
Inter de Minas
14 Oct
Guarani-MG
4 : 0
Villa Real
07 Oct
Tres Coracoes
0 : 3
Villa Real
02 Oct
Villa Real
2 : 0
Pocos de Caldas
29 Sept
Tupynambas
6 : 0
Villa Real
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Tres Coracoes 0
America TO 5
TBD -
Valeriodoce -
Santarritense 2
Novo Esporte 5
TBD -
North Esporte Clube -
Nacional Uberaba 0
Villa Real 2
TBD -
Itabirito -
Mamore 1
Coimbra Esporte Clube 1
TBD -
Araxa -
Quarter-finals
America TO 1
Valeriodoce 1
Novo Esporte 2
North Esporte Clube 3
Villa Real 1
Itabirito 1
Coimbra Esporte Clube 2
Araxa 1
Semi-finals
Valeriodoce 0
North Esporte Clube 1
Itabirito 3
Coimbra Esporte Clube 5
Final
North Esporte Clube 1
Coimbra Esporte Clube 1