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Itabuna vs EC Ypiranga

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Lucas Sergio
38' Event
Vinicius Amaral
69' Event
Diogo

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Baiano 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Itabuna
30%
Draws
33%
EC Ypiranga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Itabuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Itabuna lately — more wins on the board than EC Ypiranga.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Itabuna taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Itabuna Clean Sheet 68%
EC Ypiranga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabuna EC Ypiranga
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 18 8
Draws 14 6
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.27 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2025 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs EC Ypiranga
2:2
Apr 26, 2015 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs EC Ypiranga
1:1
Mar 16, 2014 Baiano 2
EC Ypiranga vs Itabuna
2:1
Jun 11, 2011 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs EC Ypiranga
2:1
Jun 8, 2011 Baiano 2
EC Ypiranga vs Itabuna
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Sergio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vinicius Amaral
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

EC Ypiranga Compare

Top Goalscorer Diogo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Bonete
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabuna 50 / 100
EC Ypiranga 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabuna EC Ypiranga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabuna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabuna found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (40 games).

EC Ypiranga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Itabuna went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabuna VS EC Ypiranga
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabuna

(Home)
13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1
Galicia
06 Jul
Galicia
0 : 0
Itabuna
29 Jun
SSA
0 : 0
Itabuna
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0
Bahia de Feira
08 Jun
Teixeira de Freitas
0 : 3
Itabuna
Page 1 of 8

EC Ypiranga

(Away)
29 Jun
Bahia de Feira
2 : 0
EC Ypiranga
21 Jun
EC Ypiranga
3 : 0
Teixeira de Freitas
14 Jun
Fluminense de Feira
2 : 1
EC Ypiranga
08 Jun
EC Ypiranga
2 : 1
Leonico
01 Jun
Itabuna
2 : 2
EC Ypiranga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itabuna 9 7 2 0 20:7 23
2 Bahia de Feira 9 6 2 1 28:5 20
3 Fluminense de Feira 9 6 2 1 16:5 20
4 Galicia 9 4 3 2 20:9 15
5 EC Ypiranga 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
6 Vitoria da Conquista 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
7 SSA 9 2 4 3 10:8 10
8 Leonico 8 2 1 5 12:20 7
9 Grapiuna 9 0 1 8 4:31 1
10 Teixeira de Freitas 9 0 1 8 0:24 0
Promotion - Baiano 2 2025 (Play Offs)