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Itabuna vs Leonico

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2014
Itabuna Logo

Itabuna

2 - 1
FT
Leonico Logo

Leonico

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Itabuna in this Baiano 2 2014 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itabuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Itabuna
20%
Draws
34%
Leonico
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itabuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Itabuna have won more games recently than Leonico.
  • Itabuna are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Itabuna Clean Sheet 20%
Leonico Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabuna Leonico
Matches Played 34 32
Wins 18 6
Draws 9 7
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 1.35 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.94 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Baiano 2
Leonico vs Itabuna
1:5
Mar 23, 2014 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs Leonico
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabuna 40 / 100
Leonico 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabuna Leonico

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabuna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leonico's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Itabuna scored in 68% of their last 34 outings.

Itabuna went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabuna VS Leonico
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 2
33% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabuna

(Home)
13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1
Galicia
06 Jul
Galicia
0 : 0
Itabuna
29 Jun
SSA
0 : 0
Itabuna
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0
Bahia de Feira
08 Jun
Teixeira de Freitas
0 : 3
Itabuna
Page 1 of 7

Leonico

(Away)
05 Jul
Grapiuna
0 : 6
Leonico
19 Jun
Leonico
5 : 2
Jacobina
12 Jun
Leonico
1 : 2
Barreiras
07 Jun
Fluminense de Feira
3 : 0
Leonico
30 May
Leonico
0 : 6
Feira FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colo Colo 9 7 2 0 19:1 23
2 Jacobina 9 6 2 1 15:4 20
3 CE Flamengo 9 6 2 1 22:12 20
4 Alagoinhas 9 5 1 3 18:12 16
5 Itabuna 9 4 0 5 13:11 12
6 Fluminense de Feira 9 3 3 3 8:10 12
7 EC Ypiranga 9 3 2 4 14:12 11
8 Jequie 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
9 Leonico 9 0 1 8 7:22 1
10 Ipitanga 9 0 1 8 4:35 1
Promotion - Baiano 2 2014 (Play Offs)