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Stadium Background

Italy U21 vs France U21

World World

Friendly International 2024 Stadio Carlo Castellani
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Casadei C.
41'
Volpato C.
44' Event
Ambrosino G.
Assist: Volpato C.

AI Match Summary

Italy U21 host France U21 in the Friendly International 2024. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. France U21 have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Italy U21 have conceded 1.13 and scored 2.5. Head-to-head, Italy U21 have won 0 to France U21's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on Nov 15, 2024, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.75 xG vs 2.13) point toward France U21. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Italy U21
40%
Draws
29%
France U21
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • France U21 has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Italy U21.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 40% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Friendly International 2024 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 10%
France U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy U21 France U21
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 18 21
Draws 7 5
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 2.5 3.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs France U21
2:2
Jun 22, 2023 Euro U21
France U21 vs Italy U21
2:1
May 29, 2018 Friendly International
France U21 vs Italy U21
1:1
Jun 2, 2016 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs France U21
0:1
Nov 13, 2014 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs France U21
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Casadei C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ambrosino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

France U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Cherki R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Atangana V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy U21 30 / 100
France U21 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy U21 France U21

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U21 scored in 97% of their last 29 games.

France U21 let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Italy U21 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

France U21 lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Italy U21 VS France U21
2.5 Goals Scored 3.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%