Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Italy U21 vs Netherlands U21

World World

Friendly International 2025 Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Fitz-Jim K.
31'
Asante T.
45'
Sub
Gnonto W. In: Esposito Se.
Out: Gnonto W.

AI Match Summary

Netherlands U21 in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Netherlands U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Italy U21
6%
Draws
4%
Netherlands U21
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Italy U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Netherlands U21 have won more games recently than Italy U21.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Italy U21 taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Netherlands U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy U21 Netherlands U21
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 19
Draws 7 6
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 2.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2025 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Netherlands U21
1:2
Jun 15, 2013 Euro U21
Italy U21 vs Netherlands U21
1:0
Aug 15, 2012 Friendly International
Netherlands U21 vs Italy U21
0:3
Mar 31, 2009 Friendly International
Netherlands U21 vs Italy U21
1:1
May 29, 2006 Euro U21
Netherlands U21 vs Italy U21
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Netherlands U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Fitz-Jim K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruns M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy U21 85 / 100
Netherlands U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy U21 Netherlands U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ITA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U21's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Italy U21 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Netherlands U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Italy U21 VS Netherlands U21
2.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy U21

(Home)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
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Netherlands U21

(Away)
30 Mar
Netherlands U21
2 : 1
Belgium U21
27 Mar
Norway U21
3 : 2
Netherlands U21
18 Nov
Israel U21
3 : 1
Netherlands U21
14 Nov
Netherlands U21
2 : 0
Slovenia U21
14 Oct
Netherlands U21
2 : 0
Lithuania U21
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