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Italy vs Germany Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Tonali S.
46'
Sub
Burkardt J. In: Kleindienst T.
Out: Burkardt J.
46'
Sub
Raum D. In: Schlotterbeck N.
Out: Raum D.

AI Match Summary

Germany in this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Italy
15%
Draws
26%
Germany
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Italy haven't matched Germany's recent run of results.
  • Italy are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Germany arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Germany, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Italy Clean Sheet 68%
Germany Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy Germany
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 15 17
Draws 4 4
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.74 2.39
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 1.66
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Italy
3:3
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Germany
1:2
Jun 14, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Italy
5:2
Jun 4, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Germany
1:1
Mar 31, 2020 Friendly International
Germany vs Italy
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Tonali S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.39

Germany Compare

Top Goalscorer Kleindienst T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Goretzka L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.51
Avg xA / game 0.92

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy 59 / 100
Germany 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy Germany

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Germany's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Italy has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Italy VS Germany
0.43 Goals Scored 2.75
0.57 Goals Conceded 1.13
29% Over 1.5 88%
14% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy

(Home)
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2 : 1
Italy
26 Mar
Italy
2 : 0
Northern Ireland
Page 1 of 6

Germany

(Away)
27 Sept
Germany
0 : 1
Greece
24 Sept
Netherlands
1 : 1
Germany
29 Jun
Germany
1 : 2
Paraguay
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
20 Jun
Germany
2 : 1
Ivory Coast
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Italy 4
Germany 5
Denmark 3
Portugal 5
Netherlands 5
Spain 6
Croatia 2
France 3
Semi-finals
Germany 1
Portugal 2
Spain 5
France 4
Final
Portugal 3
Spain 2
Germany 0
France 2