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Itaqua vs America SP - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Edipo
45' Event
Aislan
90' Event
Vitor G.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-3. This leg finished 0-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Itaqua
20%
Draws
40%
America SP
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Itaqua lately — more wins on the board than America SP.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Itaqua taking it.
  • Itaqua have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor America SP, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Itaqua Clean Sheet 68%
America SP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itaqua America SP
Matches Played 16 32
Wins 12 11
Draws 2 11
Losses 2 10
Goals Scored 2.06 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Paulista B
Itaqua vs America SP
0:3
Jul 26, 2026 Paulista B
America SP vs Itaqua
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itaqua Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

America SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Edipo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aislan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itaqua 50 / 100
America SP 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itaqua America SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itaqua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itaqua found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (16 games).

America SP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Itaqua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Itaqua VS America SP
2.5 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Itaqua

(Home)
02 Aug
Itaqua
0 : 3
America SP
26 Jul
America SP
1 : 1
Itaqua
18 Jul
Itaqua
1 : 0
Uniao Mogi
11 Jul
Uniao Mogi
1 : 4
Itaqua
04 Jul
Itaqua
3 : 0
Paulinia FU
Page 1 of 4

America SP

(Away)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Itaqua
0 : 3
America SP
26 Jul
America SP
1 : 1
Itaqua
19 Jul
Jose Bonifacio EC
2 : 4
America SP
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3