Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Itaqua vs Maua FC

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Itaqua play Maua FC in the Paulista B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Itaqua averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.58 conceded. Maua FC averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Itaqua won 1, Maua FC won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Itaqua and 1.06 for Maua FC. This points to a Itaqua double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Itaqua
24%
Draws
27%
Maua FC
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Itaqua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Itaqua picked up more points recently compared to Maua FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Itaqua Clean Sheet 22%
Maua FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itaqua Maua FC
Matches Played 12 33
Wins 10 14
Draws 1 10
Losses 1 9
Goals Scored 2.25 1.42
Goals Conceded 0.58 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Paulista B
Itaqua vs Maua FC
5:1
May 9, 2026 Paulista B
Maua FC vs Itaqua
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itaqua Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavinho
2 Goals
Assists Leader Salomao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Maua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rocha P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itaqua 49 / 100
Maua FC 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itaqua Maua FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Itaqua or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Itaqua attacking → ← attacking Maua FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itaqua scored in 100% of their last 12 games.

Maua FC let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Itaqua went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Maua FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 52
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Jose Bonifacio EC1064017:622
2America SP1054113:719
3Assisense1035217:1514
4Tupa1041514:1613
5Riopretano101459:167
6Santa Fe SP1020810:206
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independente SP1080237:724
2Matonense1071228:1022
3Sao Carlos1043319:1115
4Santacruzense1042419:1314
5Mogi Mirim1040615:1512
6Catanduvense1000104:660
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Flamengo SP1072113:623
2Paulinense105059:1615
3Audax-SP1051415:913
4Paulinia FU1031611:1410
5Votoraty SP1021712:197
6Guarulhos1051419:154
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Itaqua1081121:625
2Maua FC1044220:1516
3Uniao Mogi1052314:1314
4Manthiqueira1042417:1714
5Mauaense1033410:1012
6Barcelona SP1000105:260