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Itarema vs Alianca Futebol Clube

Brazil Brazil

Cearense 3 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Dudu
65'
Lorim
65'
Lorim

AI Match Summary

The Cearense 3 2024 game between Itarema and Alianca Futebol Clube finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alianca Futebol Clube.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Itarema
11%
Draws
80%
Alianca Futebol Clube
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Alianca Futebol Clube

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Alianca Futebol Clube carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Alianca Futebol Clube's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Itarema Clean Sheet 13%
Alianca Futebol Clube Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itarema Alianca Futebol Clube
Matches Played 6 6
Wins 0 1
Draws 0 1
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 0.17 0.83
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.17 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2024 Cearense 3
Itarema vs Alianca Futebol Clube
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itarema Compare

Avg xG / game 0.13
Avg xA / game 0.09

Alianca Futebol Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Dudu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itarema 11 / 100
Alianca Futebol Clube 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itarema Alianca Futebol Clube

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alianca Futebol Clube let in goals in 83% of their last 6 matches.

Away concern: Alianca Futebol Clube has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Itarema found the back of the net in 17% of recent matches (6 games).

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Itarema VS Alianca Futebol Clube
0.17 Goals Scored 0.83
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.67
83% Over 1.5 67%
33% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 17%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Quixada651010:316
2Esporte Limoeiro64118:313
3Crato631212:710
4Terra e Mar630312:119
5Tiangua EC63038:79
6Alianca Futebol Clube61145:104
7Itarema60061:150